Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4272 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4272 DAL 08:52 → MCI 10:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 868 DAL 18:56 → MCI 20:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4272 Southwest	DAL 08:52	MCI 10:27	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 768 Southwest	DAL 11:41	MCI 13:14	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1328 Southwest	DAL 13:10	MCI 14:48	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4444 Southwest	DAL 16:00	MCI 17:42	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 868 Southwest	DAL 18:56	MCI 20:27	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON