Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1318 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1318 DAL 06:05 → MCO 09:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1319 DAL 15:03 → MCO 18:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1318 Southwest	DAL 06:05	MCO 09:44	2%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 827 Southwest	DAL 08:55	MCO 12:21	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 685 Southwest	DAL 10:11	MCO 13:43	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	DAL 16:35	MCO 20:08	20%	7%	3.2%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	DAL 18:46	MCO 22:20	22%	9%	2.7%	no record
WN 1319 Southwest	DAL 15:03	MCO 18:35	24%	8%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON