Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1324 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1324 DAL 08:08 → MDW 10:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 370 DAL 18:38 → MDW 20:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1324 Southwest	DAL 08:08	MDW 10:20	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 130 Southwest	DAL 07:27	MDW 09:38	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 694 Southwest	DAL 09:47	MDW 11:59	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3613 Southwest	DAL 13:11	MDW 15:30	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1326 Southwest	DAL 14:18	MDW 16:35	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:57	MDW 19:15	18%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 370 Southwest	DAL 18:38	MDW 20:48	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON