Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 32 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:45	MEM 17:21	18%	3%	0.6%	70%
WN 1207 Southwest	DAL 16:27	MEM 17:58	22%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → HOU 08:10WN 1	2h 55m Houston	HOU 11:05 → MEM 12:46WN 2463	5h 46m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → HOU 09:45WN 7	2h 09m Houston	HOU 11:54 → MEM 13:29WN 1556	4h 59m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	6h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	7h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → MEM 17:08DL 1930	4h 49m	93%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 05m Houston	HOU 18:20 → MEM 19:50WN 1970	5h 50m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	2h 35m Houston	HOU 14:50 → MEM 16:31WN 1048	5h 31m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON