Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 654 at 13:47, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 654 Southwest	DAL 13:47	MKE 16:11	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 45m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 57m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	1h 17m Chicago	MDW 20:32 → MKE 21:19WN 104	4h 22m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON