Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 447 at 12:48, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 447 Southwest	DAL 12:48	OAK 14:18	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 21m Houston	HOU 09:31 → OAK 11:23WN 1981	7h 23m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	1h 41m Chicago	MDW 20:56 → OAK 23:29WN 1413	8h 32m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON