Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4216 Southwest	DAL 10:52	OKC 12:00	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4199 Southwest	DAL 20:19	OKC 21:27	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 12m Houston	HOU 09:22 → OKC 10:51WN 3589	4h 51m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	6h 07m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	2h 36m Houston	HOU 14:51 → OKC 16:20WN 2169	5h 20m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	2h 12m Chicago	MDW 21:27 → OKC 23:33WN 4866	6h 36m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41	2h 41m Houston	HOU 20:26 → OKC 21:51WN 3830	5h 21m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON