Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1223 at 11:35, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1223 Southwest	DAL 11:35	ONT 12:48	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41	3h 09m Houston	HOU 20:54 → ONT 22:21WN 570	7h 51m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891	10h 43m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON