Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 854 at 09:22, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 854 Southwest	DAL 09:22	PHL 13:31	6%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 19m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	8h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	53m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 14m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON