Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1353 at 15:16, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1353 Southwest	DAL 15:16	RDU 19:05	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 37m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	7h 11m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	5h 56m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON