Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 709 DAL 07:40 → SAT 08:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 966 DAL 16:38 → SAT 17:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 709 Southwest	DAL 07:40	SAT 08:53	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1513 Southwest	DAL 09:10	SAT 10:17	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2539 Southwest	DAL 11:47	SAT 12:54	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	DAL 15:33	SAT 16:41	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 787 Southwest	DAL 13:22	SAT 14:31	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	DAL 19:44	SAT 20:54	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1361 Southwest	DAL 20:53	SAT 22:00	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	DAL 16:38	SAT 17:42	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON