Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3563 at 13:14, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3563 Southwest	DAL 13:14	SDF 16:23	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 46m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	7h 27m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	6h 15m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON