Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 519 at 09:12, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 519 Southwest	DAL 09:12	SEA 11:17	18%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 00m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 07m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 32m Houston	HOU 09:42 → SEA 12:11WN 2690	8h 11m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	2h 19m Chicago	MDW 21:34 → SEA 23:53WN 2827	8h 56m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON