Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4542 at 09:18, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4542 Southwest	DAL 09:18	SFO 11:03	8%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	9h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495	9h 58m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656	10h 05m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON