Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4053 at 09:32, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4053 Southwest	DAL 09:32	SMF 11:09	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → HOU 08:10WN 1	2h 44m Houston	HOU 10:54 → SMF 12:51WN 1809	7h 51m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 54m	95%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 20:55 → SMF 23:21WN 859	8h 24m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON