Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1373 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1373 DAL 07:40 → STL 09:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1375 DAL 16:14 → STL 18:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1373 Southwest	DAL 07:40	STL 09:33	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4699 Southwest	DAL 09:03	STL 10:50	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1522 Southwest	DAL 14:39	STL 16:32	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1400 Southwest	DAL 18:50	STL 20:44	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 986 Southwest	DAL 14:31	STL 16:17	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1375 Southwest	DAL 16:14	STL 18:05	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON