Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:35 am at Dallas)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1378 Southwest	DAL 11:20	TYS 14:35	18%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 268 Southwest	DAL 11:43	TYS 14:47	19%	3%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → TYS 13:46DL 724	6h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → TYS 20:31DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	7h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → TYS 23:50DL 3072	6h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:59 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	4h 17m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON