Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1481 at 09:44, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1481 Southwest	DAL 09:44	VPS 11:36	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745	7h 24m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	4h 57m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:59 → ATL 15:12DL 441	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 43m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → HOU 09:45WN 7	3h 58m Houston	HOU 13:43 → VPS 15:23WN 547	6h 53m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	4h 50m	90%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON