Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 790 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 07:28 → SFO 09:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 07:28	SFO 09:21	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 4542 Southwest	DAL 09:18	SFO 11:03	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:09	SJC 10:52	8%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	8%	3%	0.8%	78%
WN 4671 Southwest	DAL 12:28	SJC 14:09	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2309 American	DFW 08:14	SFO 10:08	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:13	SJC 13:57	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 447 Southwest	DAL 12:48	OAK 14:18	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:32	SFO 17:40	14%	6%	0.6%	50%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	14%	5%	0.8%	57%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:20	SJC 22:13	15%	4%	0.7%	66%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:11	SFO 14:52	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	16%	8%	1.8%	55%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:52	SFO 22:01	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:58	SFO 19:42	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	19%	6%	0.8%	43%
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 21:47	SFO 23:31	20%	4%	0.9%	26%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	22%	5%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON