Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1386 DFW 18:13 → IAH 19:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	2%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	3%	1%	0.7%	84%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	HOU 08:10	4%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	HOU 10:45	5%	1%	0.7%	89%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:00	HOU 12:15	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:45	HOU 09:13	6%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:00	HOU 15:15	8%	2%	0.7%	80%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:06	IAH 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	69%
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:30	HOU 15:51	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:50	8%	3%	0.7%	60%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	9%	2%	0.7%	68%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	9%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:23	HOU 21:34	10%	3%	0.7%	72%
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:51	HOU 11:25	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:43	HOU 20:04	10%	2%	0.8%	68%
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:27	HOU 13:53	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 17:03	HOU 18:25	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:17	IAH 20:50	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 51 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:01	HOU 20:12	11%	3%	0.7%	66%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:27	IAH 19:01	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 09:57	IAH 11:17	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 10:04	IAH 11:24	14%	5%	0.6%	77%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:33	IAH 15:50	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	16%	4%	0.5%	67%
AA 1397 American	DFW 11:52	IAH 13:08	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:02	IAH 18:16	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	IAH 21:21	21%	7%	0.7%	50%
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	24%	7%	0.7%	48%
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:13	IAH 19:29	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON