Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 39 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2215 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:55 → EWR 10:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2434 DFW 15:45 → LGA 20:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:55	EWR 10:34	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 1300 Southwest	DAL 06:25	LGA 10:46	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	EWR 12:02	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 05:59	LGA 10:41	8%	2%	0.7%	72%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	EWR 11:46	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:23	EWR 13:42	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	10%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 22:04	LGA 02:36	11%	2%	0.7%	59%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	11%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:09	JFK 17:43	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 19:10	JFK 00:01	12%	3%	0.7%	64%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	12%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 1301 Southwest	DAL 09:40	LGA 14:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:49	LGA 16:21	15%	3%	0.6%	62%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:28	LGA 14:13	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	15%	3%	0.7%	69%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	15%	4%	0.6%	57%
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:57	EWR 21:38	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LGA 15:19	15%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 15:32	LGA 20:04	16%	3%	0.7%	64%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:44	LGA 16:22	17%	6%	0.7%	38%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:32	17%	4%	0.7%	69%
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:07	LGA 23:56	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:23	EWR 22:56	19%	5%	0.8%	56%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:13	LGA 20:00	19%	9%	0.9%	61%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:54	LGA 17:31	19%	6%	0.7%	59%
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 18:11	LGA 22:38	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1806 American	DFW 13:51	LGA 18:26	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:59	EWR 19:41	22%	6%	0.8%	56%
WN 1304 Southwest	DAL 16:50	LGA 21:17	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 16:14	LGA 20:57	22%	7%	0.8%	54%
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	22%	7%	0.8%	56%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:47	LGA 22:18	23%	6%	0.7%	64%
AA 2434 American	DFW 15:45	LGA 20:23	24%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON