Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 5108 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5108 DAY 07:43 → DCA 09:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5284 DAY 17:17 → DCA 18:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:43	DCA 09:22	13%	7%	1.0%	80%
OH 5407 PSA	DAY 13:00	DCA 14:44	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:17	DCA 18:55	24%	10%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON