Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1235 United Flight history →	DAY 09:01	DEN 10:04	7%	3%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	5h 15m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	99%	90%
American Details →	DAY 07:41 → CLT 09:31AA 5242 · flown by PSA	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 13:09 → DEN 14:39AA 696	8h 58m	99%	89%
United Details →	DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet	2h 42m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	8h 06m	96%	88%
American Details →	DAY 05:59 → PHL 07:48AA 5229 · flown by PSA	59m Philadelphia	PHL 08:47 → DEN 11:57AA 1313	7h 58m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	6h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	8h 33m	100%	86%
American Details →	DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50AA 5157 · flown by PSA	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	6h 37m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON