Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5157 DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5115 DAY 18:09 → DFW 19:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5157 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:09	DFW 08:50	8%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 5125 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 10:02	DFW 11:27	10%	5%	0.8%	84%
OH 5114 PSA	DAY 13:44	DFW 15:10	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:09	DFW 19:32	18%	5%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON