tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 05:59, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history → DAY 05:59 PHL 07:48 5% 4% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 20m Chicago ORD 07:15 → PHL 10:21UA 2856 4h 41m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 24m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → DAY 07:41 → CLT 09:31AA 5242 · flown by PSA 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 5h 02m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 18:38 → ATL 20:29DL 3088 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 6h 49m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 5h 24m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 3h 38m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 7h 32m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → DAY 12:44 → CLT 14:19AA 5385 · flown by PSA 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 16:43 → PHL 18:32AA 864 5h 48m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON