Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4362 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 4362 DCA 08:32 → ALB 10:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5501 DCA 16:22 → ALB 17:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4362 Republic	DCA 08:32	ALB 10:07	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5028 PSA	DCA 08:35	ALB 10:18	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5026 PSA	DCA 12:00	ALB 13:33	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5065 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	ALB 23:42	22%	8%	0.7%	56%
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:22	ALB 17:54	25%	8%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON