Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 410 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 410 DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 850 DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:52	ATL 08:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 13:51	ATL 16:07	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest	DCA 07:29	ATL 09:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
YX 4682 Republic	DCA 20:36	ATL 22:46	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2663 Southwest	DCA 11:45	ATL 13:35	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:04	ATL 13:18	9%	3%	0.6%	32%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 14:06	ATL 15:59	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
YX 4735 Republic	DCA 18:06	ATL 20:11	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	DCA 08:34	ATL 10:32	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 3033 Southwest	DCA 18:43	ATL 20:35	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:31	ATL 21:24	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	15%	3%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON