tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4057 at 16:51, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4057 Southwest DCA 16:51 AUS 19:02 16% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 40m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 8h 59m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 2h 04m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 16m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 35m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 59m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 2h 33m Nashville BNA 18:48 → AUS 21:19DL 3945 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 34m 99% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 48m Newark EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289 6h 11m 55% 44%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Newark EWR 19:05 → AUS 21:24UA 1032 5h 54m 59% 43%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 49m Newark EWR 17:21 → AUS 20:05UA 2213 5h 55m 56% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON