Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4058 DCA 17:48 → AVL 19:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5213 DCA 10:04 → AVL 11:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4058 Envoy	DCA 17:48	AVL 19:20	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5053 PSA	DCA 09:59	AVL 11:50	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:04	AVL 11:48	19%	5%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON