Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5307 DCA 07:21 → BDL 08:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 974 DCA 22:25 → BDL 23:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:21	BDL 08:50	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 5508 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:03	BDL 11:29	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
OH 5079 PSA	DCA 09:58	BDL 11:22	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	BDL 14:27	16%	5%	0.7%	68%
OH 5058 PSA	DCA 17:44	BDL 19:39	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 974 American Flight history →	DCA 22:25	BDL 23:58	20%	5%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON