Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5507 PSA	DCA 10:31	BGR 12:32	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5516 PSA	DCA 14:20	BGR 16:16	22%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 07:20 → LGA 08:43AA 4403 · flown by Republic	2h 57m New York	LGA 11:40 → BGR 13:27AA 4488 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	100%	93%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → BGR 13:22AA 1874	7h 14m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 11:17 → JFK 12:38DL 5699 · flown by Republic	1h 11m New York	JFK 13:49 → BGR 15:42DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	4h 25m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 11:00 → LGA 12:09DL 5742 · flown by Republic	2h 28m New York	LGA 14:37 → BGR 16:21DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	5h 20m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	2h 42m New York	LGA 21:41 → BGR 23:22DL 5396 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON