Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5710 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 5710 DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2754 DCA 18:55 → BOS 20:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5710 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:00	BOS 07:45	2%	1%	0.6%	93%
YX 4669 Republic	DCA 06:08	BOS 08:03	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 5863 Republic	DCA 21:52	BOS 23:38	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:14	BOS 12:03	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:55	BOS 14:40	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 21:40	BOS 23:09	7%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 3240 American Flight history →	DCA 07:02	BOS 08:55	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:47	BOS 13:27	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
B6 1854 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 01:56	BOS 03:40	8%	4%	0.7%	66%
B6 554 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 08:44	BOS 10:20	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:50	BOS 22:59	8%	3%	0.7%	62%
AA 1015 American Flight history →	DCA 10:48	BOS 12:29	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 1164 American	DCA 08:32	BOS 10:07	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:39	BOS 11:27	9%	2%	0.6%	50%
YX 4665 Republic	DCA 13:22	BOS 15:22	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:15	BOS 17:02	10%	3%	0.7%	61%
B6 2454 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:00	BOS 12:35	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
B6 754 JetBlue	DCA 12:33	BOS 14:16	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3523 Envoy	DCA 22:26	BOS 00:09	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:54	BOS 18:40	13%	3%	0.6%	59%
B6 2954 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:42	14%	7%	0.7%	49%
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:56	BOS 20:44	15%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 955 American	DCA 15:08	BOS 17:05	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 19:46	BOS 21:29	16%	7%	0.6%	43%
B6 1354 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:45	BOS 18:23	16%	6%	0.7%	49%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	BOS 20:30	18%	7%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON