Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4647 at 09:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 DCA 09:51 → BUF 11:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OH 5237 DCA 15:40 → BUF 16:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:51	BUF 11:27	8%	2%	0.5%	62%
OH 5268 PSA	DCA 22:20	BUF 23:49	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5051 PSA	DCA 12:24	BUF 13:46	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5237 PSA	DCA 15:40	BUF 16:58	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON