Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5107 DCA 08:30 → CAE 10:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 5095 DCA 16:52 → CAE 18:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CAE 10:09	15%	5%	1.2%	75%
OH 5422 PSA	DCA 21:53	CAE 23:12	19%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 5095 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:52	CAE 18:34	20%	9%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON