Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 11:44, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3345 Envoy	DCA 11:44	CID 13:21	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 09:29 → CID 10:40DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	5h 40m	98%	91%
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:09AA 795	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:32 → CID 17:36AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	8h 37m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 15:38 → CID 16:49DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	5h 49m	97%	88%
American Details →	DCA 13:36 → DFW 15:55AA 1158	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:39 → CID 20:42AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 06m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	7h 03m	97%	82%
American Details →	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → CID 23:34AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:41 → CID 22:53DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	4h 54m	84%	78%
American Details →	DCA 15:23 → CLT 16:58AA 2040	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 19:46 → CID 21:19AA 3127	6h 56m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON