Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3915 DCA 14:00 → CLE 15:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5535 DCA 11:40 → CLE 13:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3915 Envoy	DCA 14:00	CLE 15:15	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5395 PSA	DCA 07:34	CLE 09:09	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5613 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:33	CLE 00:08	15%	5%	0.8%	57%
OH 5091 PSA	DCA 17:46	CLE 19:17	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:40	CLE 13:04	18%	4%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON