Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 580 at 04:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 580 DCA 04:52 → CLT 06:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5527 DCA 12:49 → CLT 14:17 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 580 American	DCA 04:52	CLT 06:24	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1521 American Flight history →	DCA 06:08	CLT 07:39	7%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 761 American	DCA 11:58	CLT 13:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	13%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:15	CLT 16:42	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2002 American	DCA 20:26	CLT 21:54	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5527 PSA	DCA 12:49	CLT 14:17	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON