Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 DCA 07:11 → CMH 08:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5629 DCA 07:22 → CMH 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:11	CMH 08:51	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:23	CMH 11:55	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
YX 4777 Republic	DCA 13:56	CMH 15:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:15	CMH 19:54	8%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 3441 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:23	CMH 23:52	8%	2%	0.7%	74%
WN 2658 Southwest	DCA 11:31	CMH 12:52	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5629 PSA	DCA 07:22	CMH 08:53	9%	2%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON