Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5473 DCA 10:51 → DAY 12:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time Riskiest AA 5131 DCA 19:48 → DAY 21:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5473 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:51	DAY 12:41	13%	6%	0.7%	54%
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:05	DAY 16:48	14%	8%	0.7%	51%
AA 5131 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:48	DAY 21:28	16%	9%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON