Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4435 at 11:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4435 DCA 11:57 → DSM 13:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5432 DCA 22:15 → DSM 23:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4435 Republic	DCA 11:57	DSM 13:36	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5296 PSA	DCA 11:59	DSM 13:42	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	DSM 23:40	19%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON