Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5597 DCA 20:00 → DTW 21:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	DTW 07:29	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 4382 Republic	DCA 15:04	DTW 16:59	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:34	DTW 09:18	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
DL 1683 Delta	DCA 19:09	DTW 20:41	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5597 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:00	DTW 21:44	19%	5%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON