tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OH 5641 at 11:28, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5641 PSA DCA 11:28 ECP 12:58 23% 6% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 56m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 6h 07m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 05m Houston IAH 09:18 → ECP 11:11UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 11m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:40AA 1521 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 10:56 → ECP 11:43AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 35m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 22:55 → ECP 23:37AA 5633 · flown by PSA 6h 47m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 30m Houston IAH 12:11 → ECP 14:04UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 44m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON