Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2923 DCA 14:49 → FLL 17:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	6%	2%	0.7%	77%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:02	FLL 10:58	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:36	FLL 19:28	20%	6%	1.2%	61%
WN 2923 Southwest	DCA 14:49	FLL 17:29	22%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON