Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:28	GRR 13:23	18%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:30	GRR 22:27	24%	9%	0.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 22:48 → GRR 23:51DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 22m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	5h 43m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 12:53 → GRR 15:23DL 1245	7h 38m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → GRR 13:45DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	4h 06m	96%	91%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	6h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	6h 58m	99%	89%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 12:36 → GRR 14:39UA 2751	6h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	6h 26m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON