Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 5267 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5267 DCA 08:34 → GSP 10:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5093 DCA 14:38 → GSP 16:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:34	GSP 10:34	11%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 5044 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:30	GSP 21:04	20%	6%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
OH 5093 PSA	DCA 14:38	GSP 16:07	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON