Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2783 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2783 DCA 05:51 → HOU 07:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1542 DCA 18:41 → HOU 20:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2783 Southwest	DCA 05:51	HOU 07:49	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1379 Southwest	DCA 13:38	HOU 15:36	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1542 Southwest	DCA 18:41	HOU 20:35	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON