Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5282 DCA 08:06 → HPN 09:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5236 DCA 17:00 → HPN 18:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5282 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:06	HPN 09:42	17%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 5254 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:31	HPN 15:05	20%	6%	0.7%	60%
AA 5289 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:05	HPN 23:29	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
AA 5236 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:00	HPN 18:28	25%	10%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON