Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4695 DCA 06:22 → IND 08:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5587 DCA 12:02 → IND 13:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4695 Republic	DCA 06:22	IND 08:29	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:40	IND 11:39	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	IND 16:48	8%	2%	0.6%	77%
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:15	IND 19:02	8%	3%	0.6%	68%
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:35	IND 21:30	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
OH 5587 PSA	DCA 12:02	IND 13:51	11%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON