Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1850 at 07:05, 10%.

Safest bet that day AA 1850 DCA 07:05 → JAX 09:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1829 DCA 15:05 → JAX 17:13 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1850 American	DCA 07:05	JAX 09:17	10%	2%	2.7%	no record
MQ 3730 Envoy	DCA 20:55	JAX 23:02	19%	5%	7.3%	no record
AA 1829 American	DCA 15:05	JAX 17:13	27%	8%	6.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON