Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5853 DCA 16:57 → JFK 18:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:07	JFK 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:21	JFK 07:30	6%	1%	0.7%	91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:17	JFK 12:38	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:44	JFK 15:10	9%	2%	0.6%	72%
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:29	JFK 20:07	10%	3%	0.7%	71%
YX 5853 Republic	DCA 16:57	JFK 18:23	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON